Sonntag, 25. September 2022

Counterrevolution in Iran?

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/at-least-50-killed-as-anti-hijab-protests-intensify-across-iran-3372893 

I fear a protracted and bloody civil war, paralyzing the country. They know that a western backed govt could be like under Pinochet or the Shah, a neoliberal dictatorship with US backing. Freedom from Saudi type conservatism does not automatically mean freedom from bloc thinking( West vs East). Any scenario is conceivable. Interference with foreign troops as during the Russian Civil War is also possible if it continues for weeks or months with cities and provinces falling to rebels. Ukraine conflict could be overshadowed, ignored by the West. Chinese and Indians, Gulf Arabs and Israelis could also get involved. A simmering powder keg for decades perhaps now exploding. I see how in such an astrological period within the first couple of years after the great conjunctions every twenty years major eventts occur that alter history. Maybe if instability were palpable China would use this as an opportunity to take Taiwan "unnoticed". 

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